Acts of Omission et al: Prop 8, Racism, etc
Acts of Omission
I am typically not one to speak of anything political publicly. However, in the back rooms, I have been privy to a conversation that sympathizes with the highly-publicized fight for gay marriage but finds itself unable to overlook the acts of omission that have come with it. As a person who has lived the predominant part of her adulthood in rural areas as a triple minority, I find several things lacking in the modern gay rights movement that if addressed would assert a more inclusive and progressive agenda. First, I would like someone to take more seriously the prosecution of hate crime statutes that already exist, statutes that have been unable to cease the physical brutality enacted against gay bodies, particularly racialized ones. Second, it would also be nice if someone attended to the spread of AIDS to previously-uninfected communities, an epidemic spread that is exacerbated by the inadequate screening practices of prisons, the patronizing attitudes of scientists to minority communities, and a shameful lack of funding from previously-active community organizations. Last, before we get to the issue of marriage, how about someone interrogate the civility of employment discrimination institutionalized most brazenly by the army's Don't Ask Don't Tell policy, a type of discrimination that adds to the already-deep-seated instability of the lives of gay young adults, particularly gay young adults of color.
Marriage, in any community, will only be able to be taken advantage of by individuals of the middle class who have economic stability, occupational status, and "nice" homes in "nice" neighborhoods. However, the possibility to reach your group's life expectancy, to survive without morbidity, and to gain a living wage is absent in the lives of many who live at the intersections of multiple sites of inequality. Until these taken-for-granted protections are established, the right to marry remains an act that is for the privileged, and not for me.
Un-excusable Race-Baiting and Racist Scapegoating
Still, I do understand the the gay rights movement for marriage equality. Nonetheless, bitterness and anger does not excuse racist scapegoating. Google the terms: black, prop 8; and you will find a host of recent media blips concerning the myriad reasons white gays are blaming blacks for the passing of Prop 8-- a California proposition that bans same sex marriage. I spent the night of November 5th reading some really hateful blogs on DailyKos.com about this, primarily the perspective of white middle class gay folks. A few days later news of blacks being called the n-word at a LDS protest (the Mormons and other organizations of the Religious Right are the ones that got Prop 8 on the ballot in the first time). I can't tell you how much fear this incited in me.
In the past few days, I ran across several op-eds and blogs that have provided more sensible reactions to the passage of CA Prop 8. These are encouraging to me, for I thought at one moment that there literally was no community in which I could safely reside. Nonetheless, as a budding research, I did my own analysis. Upon going through the available data (as of November 8, 2008) from the CNN Exit Poll, it strikes me that that are many more non-black, non-Latino groups that could more reasonably be "blamed" for the passage of Prop 8. I will present to you my short analysis below. Keep in mind that CNN Pollsters have even come out saying that the data is far from reliable in extrapolating upon the voting tendencies of small subgroups (blacks were 10% of the 2000+ individuals sampled upon leaving the Election Polls of CA on November 4th). For instance, the Poll estimates that blacks were 10% of the electoral votes; however, several bloggers have noted that even given incredibly high turn out (near 90%), blacks don't make up more than 7% of the voting age population. Furthermore, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has already done assessment of the myth that the upsurge of voters who came out in support of Obama is the reason the proposition pass. Instead, Obama and new voters were the most "progressive" of all voters; instead, it was older and more experienced voters that were heavily pro-Prop 8. Nonetheless, the results I present assume that the data can indeed be taken as face value (an assumption that without given serious threats to validity is often taken among researchers analyzing small subpopulations).
My conclusions I will lead you to is that, mathematically, I cannot see how black people can be blamed for the passage of Prop 8.
The Numbers
According to the latest number (11/8/08), the spread was 52% (Yes: 5,682,924 votes) to 48% (No: 5,193,672 votes). [The updated numbers (11/14/08) raise the raw values for each voting response, but the findings shown here remain the same.] Thus, there was in total, 10,876,596 votes cast for or against Prop 8. According to the CNN Exit Poll, blacks make up 10% of the electorate, which means they had 1,087,660 votes to cast. Basic math shows that there was a difference of 489,252 votes that comprise the 4% spread that allowed Prop 8 to pass (Just Subtract # who voted "No" from # who voted "Yes"). If blacks voted the way the CNN Exit Poll stated, 761,362 blacks would have voted "Yes" to Prop 8 and 326,298 blacks would have voted "No" to Prop 8.
Several simple mathematical conclusions can be drawn from these set of statistics:
1. If Blacks had not voted (i.e., We were in 1963 with a 2008 social attitude), Prop 8 still would have been passed. Taking out all black votes, leaves 4,921,562 Californians who voted for Prop 8, which is a sum total larger than the 4,867,374 Californians who voted against Prop 8. Reason #1 to not blame blacks: The majority of non-black Californians voted for Prop 8.
2. If instead of voting 2 to 1, blacks had voted 1 to 1 (i.e., 50% vote "Yes" on Prop 8 and 50% vote "No" on Prop 8), Prop 8 still would have been passed. Splitting the 1.08 million votes that blacks had right down the middle leaves 5,465,392 Californians who would have voted for Prop 8, which is a sum total larger than the 5,411,204 Californians who would have voted against Prop 8. Reason #2 to not blame blacks: The black vote--even had it been sharply divided--was inconsequential to the passage of Prop 8.
3. If blacks had voted as progressively as the most progressive racial groups (i.e., Whites/Asians, of whom 49% voted "Yes" on Prop 8 and 51% voted "No" on Prop 8), Prop 8 still would have been passed. Splitting the 1.08 million votes that blacks had according to the progressive social ideologies of Whites and Asians (neither of whom have received blame for the passage of Prop 8) leaves 5,454,515 Californians voting "Yes" to Prop 8 and 5,422,081 Californians voting "No" to Prop 8. Reason #3 to not blame blacks: Even if blacks had been "progressive," the size of the black electorate was not substantial enough to curb the tide of the voting preferences of the majority of non-black Californians.
4. More so, according to my calculations, in order for Prop 8 to have been rejected, without changing the voting tendencies of any other racial/ethnic group, 46.5% of blacks would have had to vote "Yes" on Prop 8 while 53.5% of blacks would have had to vote "No" on Prop 8. [Using updated numbers, 11/14/08, the percentage of blacks needing to vote "No" decreased to 52.8%, a number still higher than any other racial/ethnic group reported] Given that no other racial/ethnic group's rejection of Prop 8 even came close to these figures, I find that it is not plausible to blame blacks for the passage of Prop 8 by statistics alone. Reason #4 to not blame blacks: Assuming progressivism among blacks is naive -- particularly, since "liberalism" has been contested within the black community since the Reconstruction era (i.e., Booker T. Washington vs. W.E.B. DuBois).
Instead, here are a number of other groups that had they been more "progressive" actually had the electorate bloc to alter the passage of Prop 8. At least 60% of all these groups voted for the passage of Prop 8 and these groups made up at least 15% of the electorate (i.e., these groups had enough statistical power to sway the outcome of the Prop 8 ballot initiative had they been more liberal).
Where We Lie (Literally)
Ok, that's all folks. I truly am exhausted from the events of the past ten days. The point of this blog is twofold: 1) to highlight the narrow views of white gay activists who have focused exclusively on marriage equality and engaged in race-baiting scapegoating tactics, both which are tactics that divide and weaken progressive social movements; and 2) to demonstrate the statistical futility of blaming blacks for the success of a campaign that was led and funded primarily by the Conservative Right who (erroneously) believes religion provides them grounds to discriminate against others.
The reactions of the white gay community and the black conservative community reveal the essence of two things -- the continued saliency of race and the inability of communities to face their own devils. Both groups are hypocrites: the white gays for always holding the black community separate except when they need them (to vote for marriage equality) and the black conservatives for buying the illogical rhetoric fed to them by the white conservatives who do not have their social, political, or economic interests in mind. Race will continue to be a salient factor in this post-Obama-win society because racial scapegoating is the easiest way to sidestep responsibility for one's inaction. If Obama trips in the White House, I'm sure whites will blame black, Latinos, and Asians (only 43% of whites voted for Obama; thus, the browning of America, not the anti-racist foundations of America, is the reason why he won). Furthermore, the inability of communities to face their own devils will leave progressive of all color stripes and hues pandering to the politics of respectability (e.g., blacks) and normativity (e.g., white gays) to accommodate the oftentimes-regressive democratic masses.
*** If anyone would like a copy of the Excel worksheet I used to calculate these statistics, let me know. I can forward it to you.
I am typically not one to speak of anything political publicly. However, in the back rooms, I have been privy to a conversation that sympathizes with the highly-publicized fight for gay marriage but finds itself unable to overlook the acts of omission that have come with it. As a person who has lived the predominant part of her adulthood in rural areas as a triple minority, I find several things lacking in the modern gay rights movement that if addressed would assert a more inclusive and progressive agenda. First, I would like someone to take more seriously the prosecution of hate crime statutes that already exist, statutes that have been unable to cease the physical brutality enacted against gay bodies, particularly racialized ones. Second, it would also be nice if someone attended to the spread of AIDS to previously-uninfected communities, an epidemic spread that is exacerbated by the inadequate screening practices of prisons, the patronizing attitudes of scientists to minority communities, and a shameful lack of funding from previously-active community organizations. Last, before we get to the issue of marriage, how about someone interrogate the civility of employment discrimination institutionalized most brazenly by the army's Don't Ask Don't Tell policy, a type of discrimination that adds to the already-deep-seated instability of the lives of gay young adults, particularly gay young adults of color.
Marriage, in any community, will only be able to be taken advantage of by individuals of the middle class who have economic stability, occupational status, and "nice" homes in "nice" neighborhoods. However, the possibility to reach your group's life expectancy, to survive without morbidity, and to gain a living wage is absent in the lives of many who live at the intersections of multiple sites of inequality. Until these taken-for-granted protections are established, the right to marry remains an act that is for the privileged, and not for me.
Un-excusable Race-Baiting and Racist Scapegoating
Still, I do understand the the gay rights movement for marriage equality. Nonetheless, bitterness and anger does not excuse racist scapegoating. Google the terms: black, prop 8; and you will find a host of recent media blips concerning the myriad reasons white gays are blaming blacks for the passing of Prop 8-- a California proposition that bans same sex marriage. I spent the night of November 5th reading some really hateful blogs on DailyKos.com about this, primarily the perspective of white middle class gay folks. A few days later news of blacks being called the n-word at a LDS protest (the Mormons and other organizations of the Religious Right are the ones that got Prop 8 on the ballot in the first time). I can't tell you how much fear this incited in me.
In the past few days, I ran across several op-eds and blogs that have provided more sensible reactions to the passage of CA Prop 8. These are encouraging to me, for I thought at one moment that there literally was no community in which I could safely reside. Nonetheless, as a budding research, I did my own analysis. Upon going through the available data (as of November 8, 2008) from the CNN Exit Poll, it strikes me that that are many more non-black, non-Latino groups that could more reasonably be "blamed" for the passage of Prop 8. I will present to you my short analysis below. Keep in mind that CNN Pollsters have even come out saying that the data is far from reliable in extrapolating upon the voting tendencies of small subgroups (blacks were 10% of the 2000+ individuals sampled upon leaving the Election Polls of CA on November 4th). For instance, the Poll estimates that blacks were 10% of the electoral votes; however, several bloggers have noted that even given incredibly high turn out (near 90%), blacks don't make up more than 7% of the voting age population. Furthermore, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has already done assessment of the myth that the upsurge of voters who came out in support of Obama is the reason the proposition pass. Instead, Obama and new voters were the most "progressive" of all voters; instead, it was older and more experienced voters that were heavily pro-Prop 8. Nonetheless, the results I present assume that the data can indeed be taken as face value (an assumption that without given serious threats to validity is often taken among researchers analyzing small subpopulations).
My conclusions I will lead you to is that, mathematically, I cannot see how black people can be blamed for the passage of Prop 8.
The Numbers
According to the latest number (11/8/08), the spread was 52% (Yes: 5,682,924 votes) to 48% (No: 5,193,672 votes). [The updated numbers (11/14/08) raise the raw values for each voting response, but the findings shown here remain the same.] Thus, there was in total, 10,876,596 votes cast for or against Prop 8. According to the CNN Exit Poll, blacks make up 10% of the electorate, which means they had 1,087,660 votes to cast. Basic math shows that there was a difference of 489,252 votes that comprise the 4% spread that allowed Prop 8 to pass (Just Subtract # who voted "No" from # who voted "Yes"). If blacks voted the way the CNN Exit Poll stated, 761,362 blacks would have voted "Yes" to Prop 8 and 326,298 blacks would have voted "No" to Prop 8.
Several simple mathematical conclusions can be drawn from these set of statistics:
1. If Blacks had not voted (i.e., We were in 1963 with a 2008 social attitude), Prop 8 still would have been passed. Taking out all black votes, leaves 4,921,562 Californians who voted for Prop 8, which is a sum total larger than the 4,867,374 Californians who voted against Prop 8. Reason #1 to not blame blacks: The majority of non-black Californians voted for Prop 8.
2. If instead of voting 2 to 1, blacks had voted 1 to 1 (i.e., 50% vote "Yes" on Prop 8 and 50% vote "No" on Prop 8), Prop 8 still would have been passed. Splitting the 1.08 million votes that blacks had right down the middle leaves 5,465,392 Californians who would have voted for Prop 8, which is a sum total larger than the 5,411,204 Californians who would have voted against Prop 8. Reason #2 to not blame blacks: The black vote--even had it been sharply divided--was inconsequential to the passage of Prop 8.
3. If blacks had voted as progressively as the most progressive racial groups (i.e., Whites/Asians, of whom 49% voted "Yes" on Prop 8 and 51% voted "No" on Prop 8), Prop 8 still would have been passed. Splitting the 1.08 million votes that blacks had according to the progressive social ideologies of Whites and Asians (neither of whom have received blame for the passage of Prop 8) leaves 5,454,515 Californians voting "Yes" to Prop 8 and 5,422,081 Californians voting "No" to Prop 8. Reason #3 to not blame blacks: Even if blacks had been "progressive," the size of the black electorate was not substantial enough to curb the tide of the voting preferences of the majority of non-black Californians.
4. More so, according to my calculations, in order for Prop 8 to have been rejected, without changing the voting tendencies of any other racial/ethnic group, 46.5% of blacks would have had to vote "Yes" on Prop 8 while 53.5% of blacks would have had to vote "No" on Prop 8. [Using updated numbers, 11/14/08, the percentage of blacks needing to vote "No" decreased to 52.8%, a number still higher than any other racial/ethnic group reported] Given that no other racial/ethnic group's rejection of Prop 8 even came close to these figures, I find that it is not plausible to blame blacks for the passage of Prop 8 by statistics alone. Reason #4 to not blame blacks: Assuming progressivism among blacks is naive -- particularly, since "liberalism" has been contested within the black community since the Reconstruction era (i.e., Booker T. Washington vs. W.E.B. DuBois).
Instead, here are a number of other groups that had they been more "progressive" actually had the electorate bloc to alter the passage of Prop 8. At least 60% of all these groups voted for the passage of Prop 8 and these groups made up at least 15% of the electorate (i.e., these groups had enough statistical power to sway the outcome of the Prop 8 ballot initiative had they been more liberal).
- The elderly (65+) -- 61% voted Yes, group made up 15% of the electorate
- Republicans -- 82% voted Yes, group made up 29% of the electorate
- Conservatives -- 85% voted Yes, group made up 30% of the electorate
- Protestants -- 65% voted Yes, group made up 43% of the electorate bloc
- Catholics -- 64% voted Yes, group made up 30% of the electorate bloc
- White Protestants -- 65% voted Yes, group made up 29% of the electorate bloc
- Those who attend church weekly -- 82% voted Yes, group made up 22% of the electorate bloc
- Married people -- 60% voted Yes, group made up 62% of the electorate bloc
- People with children under 18 -- 64% voted Yes, group made up 40% of the electorate bloc
- Gun owners -- 62% voted Yes, group made up 31% of the electorate bloc
- Bush voters -- 80% voted Yes, group made up 38% of the electorate bloc
- Offshore drilling supporters -- 66% voted Yes, group made up 31% of the electorate bloc
- People who are afraid of a terrorist attack -- 65% voted Yes, group made up 24% of the electorate bloc
- People who thought their family finances were better now than 4 years ago -- 61% voted Yes, group made up 24% of the electorate bloc
- Supporters of the war against Iraq -- 85% voted Yes, group made up 30% of the electorate bloc
- People who didn't care about the age of the candidates -- 60% voted Yes, group made up 59% of the electorate bloc
- People who approve of how Bush handling job -- 86% voted Yes, 24% of the electorate bloc
- People who are from the "Inland/Valley" region of California -- 65% voted Yes, group made up 21% of the electorate bloc
- McCain voters -- 84% voted Yes, group made up 38% of the electorate bloc
Where We Lie (Literally)
Ok, that's all folks. I truly am exhausted from the events of the past ten days. The point of this blog is twofold: 1) to highlight the narrow views of white gay activists who have focused exclusively on marriage equality and engaged in race-baiting scapegoating tactics, both which are tactics that divide and weaken progressive social movements; and 2) to demonstrate the statistical futility of blaming blacks for the success of a campaign that was led and funded primarily by the Conservative Right who (erroneously) believes religion provides them grounds to discriminate against others.
The reactions of the white gay community and the black conservative community reveal the essence of two things -- the continued saliency of race and the inability of communities to face their own devils. Both groups are hypocrites: the white gays for always holding the black community separate except when they need them (to vote for marriage equality) and the black conservatives for buying the illogical rhetoric fed to them by the white conservatives who do not have their social, political, or economic interests in mind. Race will continue to be a salient factor in this post-Obama-win society because racial scapegoating is the easiest way to sidestep responsibility for one's inaction. If Obama trips in the White House, I'm sure whites will blame black, Latinos, and Asians (only 43% of whites voted for Obama; thus, the browning of America, not the anti-racist foundations of America, is the reason why he won). Furthermore, the inability of communities to face their own devils will leave progressive of all color stripes and hues pandering to the politics of respectability (e.g., blacks) and normativity (e.g., white gays) to accommodate the oftentimes-regressive democratic masses.
*** If anyone would like a copy of the Excel worksheet I used to calculate these statistics, let me know. I can forward it to you.
Comments
Have you any suggestions on how to resolve this issue?
My suggestions: 1) state your position clearly, 2) resist trivializing oppressions, 3) build a multi-racial, multi-class coalition in support of your cause. If you notice, these are precisely the tactics that Harry Jackson (during his CBN News interview) is using to make his claim that "blacks" do not support Prop 8. As you can tell, it works.
I wrote a poem very early in my youth that addresses these very concerns. You can listen to it out on the podcast archives of bloomingout (the 11/30/06 show) or view it at my Myspace page.